【what to do with juicer scraps】Bitcoin – Bears Look to Recover from a Bad Start to 2019
Bitcoin gained 3.4% on Tuesday,what to do with juicer scraps reversing a 3.72% loss from the end of 2018, to end the day at $3.963.1, with Bitcoin failing to break through to $4,000 levels for a 2
nd
consecutive day.
Relatively range bound through much of the day, Bitcoin recovered from an early morning low $3,810.2 to an early afternoon high $3,894.9 before hitting reverse to strike a late afternoon intraday low $3,788.1.
Steering clear of the day’s first major support level at $3,738.70, Bitcoin rallied to a late in the day intraday high $3,987.00, breaking through the first major support level at $3,954.60, while falling short of $4,000 levels and the first major resistance level at $4,078.70.
For the Bitcoin bulls, $4,000 continues to be the line in the sand, with Bitcoin now having failed to close out at $4,000 levels for a 4
th
consecutive day and for a 7
th
day in the last 8.
There was no material news across the crypto wires at the start of the year to support the late in the day rally, with price forecasts for the year ahead taking most of the headlines, the main issue for Bitcoin and the broader market being the extended bearish trend that remains intact going into the New Year.
Across the majors, Binance Coin was the only top 20 coin to see red at the start of the year, while Bitcoin Cash ABC led the way, rallying by 9.7% on Tuesday, Bitcoin Cash SV a distant second with an 8.26% Gain.
With Bitcoin’s dominance down at 51.6% and the total crypto market cap rising back to $129.95bn, it was the start of the year that Bitcoin and the broader market needed, though with Bitcoin still languishing at sub-$4,000 levels, the bulls will have their work cut out to maintain the upward momentum through the week, even with the news wires being relatively crypto friendly.
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At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down 0.2% to $3,955.3, with a start of a day morning high $3,980.2 coming up short of the first major resistance level at $4,037.37 and more importantly $4,000 levels, to ease back to a morning low $3,938.6 before steadying, Bitcoin steering clear of the first major support level at $3,838.48 early on.
For the day ahead, a hold above $3,910 levels through the morning would support a move back through the morning high $3,980.2 to take a run at $4,000 levels and the first major resistance level at $4,037.37, with support from the broader market needed for Bitcoin to attempt a breakout to bring $4,100 levels into play later in the day.
Failure to hold above $3,910 levels through the morning could see Bitcoin take a bigger hit later in the day, with a fall through to $3,800 levels bringing the first major support level at $3,838.47 into play before any recovery, sub-$3,800 support levels unlikely to be tested barring a broad based crypto sell-off later in the day.
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- 5%, led by a 17% increase in average ticket and a slight decline in traffic. Growth in the quarter reflected the impact of households stocking up on essentials like paper goods and cleaning supplies as the pandemic became a nationwide concern, along with strength in discretionary categories as the quarter came to a close and stimulus dollars and tax refunds were disbursed.
As shown below, the results in the quarter materially changed the trend in two-year stacked comps for each of the banners, along with a significant acceleration for consolidated comps.
The increase in consolidated comps was the primary driver of an 8% increase in revenues to $6.3 billion. The company ended the quarter with 15,370 locations, up less than 1% year-over-year. This reflects a 7% increase in Dollar Tree units, offset by a 4% decline in Family Dollar units.
The top-line results at each banner flowed through to their respective income statements, with Dollar Tree gross margins and operating margins declining year-over-year while Family Dollar gross margins and operating margins expanded year-over-year. On a consolidated basis, gross margins contracted by 120 basis points in the quarter to 28.5%, reflective of a shift to lower-margin consumables, tariff costs and the impact of markdowns from the Easter headwinds at the Dollar Tree banner. The company saw slight operating leverage on SG&A from higher comps, with the net result being an 80 basis point contraction in operating margins to 5.8%, with operating income declining 5% to $366 million. This is not adjusted for $73 million of pandemic-related costs, such as PPE supplies.
In the first quarter, the company opened 85 stores (net of closures) and completed 220 Family Dollar renovations to the H2 format. Importantly, comps at renovated Family Dollar stores continue to outpace the chain average by more than 10%. On the call, management indicated that they plan on reducing both the number of new store openings (from 550 to 500) and the number of H2 renovations (from 1,250 to 750) in 2020.
Personally, given the fact that Family Dollar is seeing material benefits to its business from the pandemic with new or lapsed customers coming into its stores, I think the company should try to get more aggressive with its renovation plans, not less. On the other hand, you could argue that renovations cause short-term disruptions and limit their ability to fully capitalize on the business momentum they are currently experiencing.
As a result of fewer new stores and remodels, management now expects 2020 capital expenditures to total $1.0 billion compared to previous guidance of $1.2 billion. In addition, the company has temporarily suspended share repurchases. At quarter's end, the company had $1.8 billion in cash on its balance sheet compared to $4.3 billion in total debt.
Conclusion
In recent years, Dollar Tree has been a tale of two cities. While its namesake banner has generally delivered impressive financial results, Family Dollar has been a persistent underperformer. This quarter, those results flipped, and given what we've seen in the weeks since quarter's end, there's a decent possibility that we will see something similar in the coming months. As the CEO noted, the second quarter is off to a very good start at Family Dollar.
Here's the important question: how useful is that information is in terms of making future predictions about the business? Will recent success at Family Dollar translate into long-term success for the banner? The optimistic take is that new or lapsed customers, especially those visiting the renovated stores, could become recurring business for the banner. The pessimistic take is that they have experienced short-term success out of necessity as people went to any store that was open to try and find essentials like toilet paper and hand sanitizer that were largely out of stock throughout the retail landscape. From that view, many of these customers could abandon the retailer when life returns to normal. As Philbin noted on the conference call, early on [during the pandemic], folks needed us. Will people still shop as much at Family Dollar when it's no longer a necessity?
Personally, I do not place too much weight on the recent results. I will need to see incremental data points that indicate that Family Dollar has truly won sustained business from these new customers. While I still believe that the Dollar Tree banner is a well-positioned retailer with attractive unit returns, I'm not yet willing to say the same thing for Family Dollar. For that reason, along with the recent run-up in the stock price, I plan on staying on the sidelines for now.
Disclosure: None
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